Preliminary Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East

  • Bootan Rahman Mathematics Unit, School of Science and Engineering, University of Kurdistan Hewlêr, Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6695-155X
  • Imad A. Aziz Department of Mathematics, College of Science, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq
  • Fuad W. Khdhr Department of Mathematics, College of Science, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq
  • Dler FD Mahmood Biology Department, College of Science, University of Sulaimani, Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan Region, Iraq
Keywords: Basic Reproduction Number (R_0), COVID-19, Mathematical Model, SIR, Middle East.

Abstract

Up to April 9, 2020, 142490 cases have been confirmed as COVID-19 infection including 5705 associated deaths in the Middle East. Most of the countries, such as Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia have imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. Using the available data from WHO webpage, up to 9 April 2020, we traced epidemic curves and estimated the basic reproduction number ( ) of COVID-19 through the susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model for the Middle East countries. Epidemic curves for Middle East countries and territory show similar trend as Iran, with a couple of weeks’ delay in time. In SIR model,   ranged between 7.41 as in Turkey to lowest as 2.60 for Oman whereas basic reproduction number for Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Israel, West Bank and Gaza Strip territory, and  Cyprus were 4.13,  2.71, 3.39, 4.18, 4.45, 2.75, 2.60, 3.52, 3.35, 3.16, 4.99,  4.08, 2.89, and 4.05, respectively. This study indicates an important trend on an early outbreak of COVID-19 based on estimated  for the Middle East countries, mean 3.76 for COVID-19, with median  and interquartile range (IQR)  in the Middle East.

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Author Biographies

Bootan Rahman, Mathematics Unit, School of Science and Engineering, University of Kurdistan Hewlêr, Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq

Bootan Rahman is a PhD holder and works at Mathematics Unit, School of Science and Engineering, University of Kurdistan Hewlêr, Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq.

Imad A. Aziz, Department of Mathematics, College of Science, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq

Imad Aziz: works at the Department of Mathematics, College of Science, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq.

Fuad W. Khdhr, Department of Mathematics, College of Science, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq

Fuad Khdhr: works at the Department of Mathematics, College of Science, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq.

Dler FD Mahmood, Biology Department, College of Science, University of Sulaimani, Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan Region, Iraq

Dler Mahmood: works at the Biology Department, College of Science, University of Sulaimani, Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan Region, Iraq.

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Published
2022-06-30
How to Cite
Rahman, B., Aziz, I., Khdhr, F., & Mahmood, D. (2022, June 30). Preliminary Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East. UKH Journal of Science and Engineering, 6(1), 61-68. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.25079/ukhjse.v6n1y2022.pp61-68
Section
Research Articles
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