Preliminary Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East
Up to April 9, 2020, 142490 cases have been confirmed as COVID-19 infection including 5705 associated deaths in the Middle East. Most of the countries, such as Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia have imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. Using the available data from WHO webpage, up to 9 April 2020, we traced epidemic curves and estimated the basic reproduction number ( ) of COVID-19 through the susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model for the Middle East countries. Epidemic curves for Middle East countries and territory show similar trend as Iran, with a couple of weeks’ delay in time. In SIR model, ranged between 7.41 as in Turkey to lowest as 2.60 for Oman whereas basic reproduction number for Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Israel, West Bank and Gaza Strip territory, and Cyprus were 4.13, 2.71, 3.39, 4.18, 4.45, 2.75, 2.60, 3.52, 3.35, 3.16, 4.99, 4.08, 2.89, and 4.05, respectively. This study indicates an important trend on an early outbreak of COVID-19 based on estimated for the Middle East countries, mean 3.76 for COVID-19, with median and interquartile range (IQR) in the Middle East.
Chowell, G., Nishiura, H., and Bettencourt, L. M. A. (2007). Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 4(12), 155–166. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2006.0161
Ghaffarzadegan, N. and Rahmandad, H. (2020). Simulation-based Estimation of the Spread of COVID-19 in Iran. MedRxiv, 2020.03.22.20040956. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040956
Ghsindex. (2020). Global Health Security Index. Retrieved 24 March 2020 from URL https://www.ghsindex.org/
Hamer, W. H. (1906). The Milroy Lectures on Epidemic Diseases in England: The Evidence of Variability and of Persistency of Type; Delivered Before the Royal College of Physicians of London, March 1st, 6th, and 8th, 1906. Bedford Press.
Huang, C., Wang, Y., Li, X., Ren, L., Zhao, J., Hu, Y., Zhang, L., Fan, G., Xu, J., Gu, X., Cheng, Z., Yu, T., Xia, J., Wei, Y., Wu, W., Xie, X., Yin, W., Li, H., Liu, M., … Cao, B. (2020). Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet (London, England), 395(10223), 497–506. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30183-5
Jebril, N. M. T. (2020). Distinguishing epidemiological curve of novel coronavirus disease ( COVID-19 ) cases in Iraq : How it does not follow the epidemic curve of China.
Korolev, I. (2020). Identification and Estimation of the SEIRD Epidemic Model for COVID-19. 1–27.
Lauro, F. Di, Kiss, I. Z., and Miller, J. (2020). The timing of one-shot interventions for epidemic control. MedRxiv, 2020.03.02.20030007. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.02.20030007
Lewnard, J. A. and Lo, N. C. (2020). Scientific and ethical basis for social-distancing interventions against COVID-19. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. DOI: https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30190-0
Li, Q., Guan, X., Wu, P., Wang, X., Zhou, L., Tong, Y., Ren, R., Leung, K. S. M., Lau, E. H. Y., Wong, J. Y., Xing, X., Xiang, N., Wu, Y., Li, C., Chen, Q., Li, D., Liu, T., Zhao, J., Liu, M., … Feng, Z. (2020). Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia. New England Journal of Medicine, 1–9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1056/nejmoa2001316
Liu, Y., Gayle, A. A., Wilder-Smith, A., and Rocklöv, J. (2020). The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus. Journal of Travel Medicine, 27(2), 1–4. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa021
Morawska, L. and Cao, J. (2020). Airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2: The world should face the reality. Environment International, 139, 105730. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.105730
Muniz-Rodriguez, K., Fung, I. C.-H., Ferdosi, S. R., Ofori, S. K., Lee, Y., Tariq, A., and Chowell, G. (2020). Transmission potential of COVID-19 in Iran. MedRxiv, 2020.03.08.20030643. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.08.20030643
Rahman, B., Sadraddin, E., and Porreca, A. (2020). The basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan is about to die out, how about the rest of the World? Reviews in Medical Virology, e2111. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/rmv.2111
Sahafizadeh, E. and Sartoli, S. (2020). Estimating the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Iran using epidemic modeling. MedRxiv, 2020.03.20.20038422. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.20.20038422
van Doremalen, N., Bushmaker, T., Morris, D. H., Holbrook, M. G., Gamble, A., Williamson, B. N., Tamin, A., Harcourt, J. L., Thornburg, N. J., Gerber, S. I., Lloyd-Smith, J. O., de Wit, E., and Munster, V. J. (2020). Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1. The New England Journal of Medicine, 382(16), 1564–1567. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2004973
Vatanka, A., Slim, N. A.-D. R., Lister, C., Tol, M. F. M. M. G. W. G., Elgindy, G. M. F. K., Pack, J., Lawrence, W., Ford, R. S., and Salem, P. (2020). COVID-19 and the Middle East. Retrieved 18 March 2020 from URL https://www.mei.edu/blog/covid-19-and-middle-east.
Viboud, C., Sun, K., Gaffey, R., Ajelli, M., Fumanelli, L., Merler, S., Zhang, Q., Chowell, G., Simonsen, L., and Vespignani, A. (2018). The RAPIDD ebola forecasting challenge: Synthesis and lessons learnt. Epidemics, 22, 13–21. DOI: https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2017.08.002
Viceconte, G., and Petrosillo, N. (2020). COVID-19 R0: Magic number vidual affected by a transmittable disease is or conundrum? 12, 12–13. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4081/idr.2020
Wang, J., Distric, J., Jiang, S., Jiang, S., Li, Q., Li, C., He, X., Wang, T., Li, H., Corpe, C., Zhang, X., Xu, J., and Wang, J. (2020). Mathematical models for devising the optimal SARS-CoV-2 eradication in China , South Korea , Iran , and Italy. The Lancet Global Health.
Wenbao, W., Yiqin, C., Qi, W., Ping, C., Ye, H., Shanwen, H., Yan, W., Zuxiong, H., and Wenxiang, W. (2020). Transmission dynamics of SARS-COV-2 in China: impact of public health interventions. MedRxiv, 2020.03.24.20036285. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.24.20036285
WHO (2019). Report of the WHO-China joint mission on Coronavirus disease COVID-19 (2019).
WHO (2020a). Emergency Committee regarding theoutbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Retrieved 11 March 2020 from URL https://Www.Who.Int/Dg/Speeches/Detail/Who-Director-General-s-Opening-Remarks-at-the-Media-Briefing-on-Covid-19.
WHO (2020b). Emergency Committee regarding theoutbreak of novel coronavirus 2019 (n-CoV), Accessed 23rd January 2020. Https://Www.Who.Int/News-Room/Detail/23-01-2020-Statement-on-the-Meeting-of-the-International-Health-Regulations-(2005)-Emergency-Committee-Regarding-the-Outbreak-of-Novel-Coronavirus-(2019-Ncov).
Xu, R., Cui, B., Duan, X., Zhang, P., Zhou, X., and Yuan, Q. (2020). Saliva: potential diagnostic value and transmission of 2019-nCoV. International Journal of Oral Science, 12(1), 11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41368-020-0080-z
Yuan, J., Li, M., Lv, G., and Lu, Z. K. (2020). Monitoring Transmissibility and Mortality of COVID-19 in Europe. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. DOI: https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.050
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License [CC BY-NC-ND 4.0] that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).