Forecasting Models for Different Horizons

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25079/ukhjse.v1n1y2017.pp4-10

Keywords:

Bayesian Modelling, Discounting, Forecasting, Long- and Short-term Forecasting Models

Abstract

A general class of models is introduced to provide robust and practically simple forecasts for different horizons.  These are obtained in the presence of both high and low frequencies in the data.  A sub-model is constructed to estimate low frequency state parameters and the results obtained are used as conditional information in modelling the high frequency parameters.  All parameters have probability distributions and the discount principle of Ameen and Harrison (1985) is used in the posterior‑prior state distribution transitions.  A number of limiting results and special cases are also discussed.

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Author Biography

  • Jamal R.M. Ameen, (1) University of Kurdistan Hewler, Erbil, Kurdistan Region - F.R. Iraq. (2) University of South Wales, United Kingdom

    Jamal Ameen obtained a BSc in Mathematics and an MSc in Mathematics/Statistics from Baghdad University and his PhD in the field of Bayesian Modelling and Forecasting from the University of Warwick, UK. For the past ten years, he has been working as a Senior Advisor to the Minister of Planning and one of the advisory members of the Economic Council headed by the Prime Minister of KRG and often represented Kurdistan Region in a number of key projects like the Public Distribution System, The Poverty Reduction Strategy, The Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) as examples and worked with The World Bank and all United Nations organizations on projects for Kurdistan and Iraq. He has been awarded a gold medal from The House of Representatives, Iraqi Federal Government and a trophy from The World Bank for his active contributions in a five year Poverty Reduction Strategy for Iraq and Kurdistan Region. He joined The University of Kurdistan Hawler on the 20th of July, 2016, where he is the Pro Vice Chancellor of the UKH.

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Published

2017-12-04

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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2017): ISSUE ONE

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Research Articles

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How to Cite

Forecasting Models for Different Horizons. (2017). UKH Journal of Science and Engineering, 1(1), 4-10. https://doi.org/10.25079/ukhjse.v1n1y2017.pp4-10

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